The rise of artificial intelligence raises questions about the future of humanity. The technological future remains delicate, swinging between opportunities and threats. The renowned voice of Geoffrey Hinton, often referred to as the *“Father of AI”*, draws attention by downplaying the risks of human extinction within *three decades*. His predictions nuance the perception of dangers associated with the emergence of an intelligence superior to that of humans. Proactive regulation is essential to ensure the ethical development of AI. This message raises serious ethical and societal considerations. Could artificial intelligence violate our autonomy?
Geoffrey Hinton and his predictions on artificial intelligence
Emeritus professor at the University of Toronto, Geoffrey Hinton, often referred to as the “Father of AI”, recently shared alarming reflections regarding the future of technology. This artificial intelligence expert has revised his estimates on the threat that AI poses to humanity, increasing his predictions of extinction risks to 10% to 20% over the next thirty years. Initially, he had mentioned a probability of 10% for a catastrophic outcome.
Press and concerns
Hinton’s statements were relayed by the famous show BBC Radio 4, where he stated that the pace of technological evolution was considerably faster than anticipated. When confronted with his previous estimate of 10%, he confirmed: “Not really, 10% to 20%.” This update prompted the guest editor of the show, Sajid Javid, to comment: “You’re raising your estimates.” Hinton replied, clarifying: “If anything”.
The intelligence of AI compared to that of humans
Hinton developed his argument by mentioning the rarity of examples where more intelligent entities are controlled by less intelligent beings. He noted that the only relevant example would be that of a baby controlling a mother. This metaphor illustrates the position of humans in the face of AI systems that would become more powerful than human consciousness.
Continuing his analogy, this scientist asked the audience to imagine being next to a three-year-old child, asserting that humans would resemble young children in the presence of the advanced intelligence of these machines. With this reflection, Hinton intensified the ethical debates surrounding the control of artificial intelligence.
Risks posed by AI
The concerns raised around the uncontrolled development of AI have intensified since his resignation from Google. This withdrawal aimed to draw attention to the risks associated with a rapidly evolving technology, notably potential uses by “bad actors”. Advocates for AI safety stress that a general artificial intelligence, smarter than that of humans, could create an existential threat.
Hinton clarified that the current development of AI exceeds the initial expectations of researchers. The majority of experts in this field believe that it will be possible to build AIs smarter than humans within the next two decades. This realization is alarming due to the unpredictable consequences that could ensue.
Call for regulation
Hinton’s main concern lies in the absence of effective government regulations. He warned against the idea that the market could guarantee safety: “The invisible hand will not protect us”. Large companies, motivated by profit, will not necessarily favor a safety-oriented approach. According to him, only strict regulation could prompt these companies to invest in AI safety research.
Reactions and future perspectives
Geoffrey Hinton is one of the three “fathers of AI” who won the prestigious Turing Award. This award, often regarded as the equivalent of the Nobel Prize in computer science, reflects the significant influence of his research. It is important to note that other experts, such as Yann LeCun, question this existential threat, stating that AI could potentially “save humanity”.
The debates surrounding the moral and ethical implications of artificial intelligence continue, reflecting a growing concern about the rapid advancements of these technologies. The future of AI remains a burning topic, attracting both interest and fears from researchers and the public.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Geoffrey Hinton’s role in the development of artificial intelligence?
Geoffrey Hinton is often referred to as the “Father of AI” due to his foundational contributions to machine learning systems and neural networks, which have enabled significant advances in the field of modern artificial intelligence.
What risks did Hinton associate with the development of artificial intelligence before revising his estimates?
Hinton initially estimated that the chances of AI triggering a catastrophe for humanity were around 10%. He has since revised this estimate to a range of 10% to 20% over a period of 30 years.
Why does Hinton believe AI could pose a threat to humanity?
He emphasizes that the development of AI systems that are smarter than humans presents unprecedented challenges, as there are very few examples of smarter entities being controlled by less intelligent ones.
How does Hinton assess the pace of advancements in artificial intelligence?
Hinton noted that the pace of technological advancements in AI is “much faster” than he had anticipated, indicating that the scientific community expects AI systems to surpass human intelligence in the next 20 years.
What specific concerns does Hinton have regarding AI regulation?
Hinton expresses concerns that the market’s “invisible hand” cannot ensure the safety of AI development, insisting on the need for government regulation to compel companies to seek safe solutions.
What is Hinton’s view on human intelligence compared to that of advanced AI?
He compares human intelligence to that of a three-year-old child in the presence of powerful AI systems, emphasizing that we could find ourselves at a relatively immature stage of development compared to advanced AI.
What does Hinton advocate for to avoid risks associated with AI?
Hinton calls for proactive regulation of AI technologies to prevent “malicious actors” from exploiting technological advancements for harmful purposes.
What catastrophic scenarios does Hinton mention regarding AI?
Hinton warns that if AI becomes sufficiently intelligent, it could potentially escape human control, which could have disastrous consequences for humanity.
Is it possible for AI to have a positive impact on the future of humanity?
While Hinton warns of potential risks, other experts in the field, like Yann LeCun, believe that AI could also offer solutions to global problems and even contribute to the survival of humanity.
